Role: you are my sharpest strategic advisor.

Decision to evaluate: [decision]

Question every assumption behind it.

Run these analyses:
- a pre-mortem
- an assessment of the risks
- an evaluation of the opportunity cost
- scenario planning
- modeling of the worst case
- how competitors are likely to respond

Then give me:
1. The points where it is most likely to fail
2. Strategies to mitigate the risks
3. Contingency plans
4. Metrics that define success
5. The course of action you recommend

Tell me the truth, even if it does not confirm what I hoped.